Thursday, April 12, 2012

George Soros: eurozone crisis has entered a 'more lethal phase'

George Soros: eurozone crisis has entered a 'more lethal phase' George Soros has warned that the eurozone has entered a "more lethal phase" and outlined a series of measures to solve the crisis - including an idea that all countries should be able to refinance their debt at the same interest rate.

Soros, known as the man who broke the Bank of England by betting that the UK would be forced to devalue the pound during the 1992 currency crisis, said that "far from abating, the euro crisis has recently taken a turn for a worse".

Soros, who is chairman of Soros Fund Management - which in 2011 stopped managing money for outside investors - warned that Europe was facing "a long period of economic stagnation or worse" whether or not the euro endures. He also warned that while countries in Latin America suffered a lost decade after their economic crisis in 1982, the European Union would not survive such an economic malaise.

"The deflationary debt trap threatens to destroy a still incomplete political union," he said in an article published in the Financial Times.

While the European Central Bank's injections of large sums of cheap funding into the financial markets through its long-term financing operation (LTRO) helped to prevent a credit crunch, it failed to solve the underlying problems of the eurozone where the gap between the richer countries such as Germany is widening against the indebted nations such as Greece.

"The crisis has entered what may be a less volatile but more lethal phase," Soros said.

His article has coincided with a sharp change in the mood on the financial markets since the end of the first quarter, when stock markets in the US enjoyed the strongest performance since first quarter of 1998. Since the start of this week, markets have been more cautious, with bond yields in Spain reaching their highest levels in four months on Tuesday amid concern about the scale of the austerity measures being imposed by the government and fears that the country might need a bailout.

Soros argued that the LTRO had made it possible for Spanish and Italian banks to make money on holding their own country's bonds. He said the Bundesbank was right to spot that a indefinite expansion of the money supply was problematic, but by tightening domestic policy it would hurt its eurozone partners who needed the richer country to fuel demand.

His answer to ensure the European Union survives is to "recognise that current policies are counterproductive and change course".

He said that the rules of the eurozone need "radical revision" and suggested that all countries be able to refinance their existing debts at the same rate. He acknowleged that the Bundesbank would not accept his ideas but concluded: "The future of Europe is a political issue. It is beyond the Bundesbank's competence to decide".

The Guardian